- Roundtable - muug.ca

Re: [RndTbl] hard drive failure curve (John Donovan)
by JD 09 Sep '14

09 Sep '14

I am glad a visual was put, for the meaning of 'Bathtub Curve'. I am no stats guy, but I can dig a Bell Curve, nine times out of ten, and I groove to a good Fletcher-Munson Curve with regularity. The idea of a Bathtub Curve makes me feel .. bubbly. However, when it comes to interpreting Hard Disk Drive Mortality Rates, I think there are some more factors to be considered. I've sold at least a thousand, and worked on almost as many more drives. Mostly from the latter case, I have come to form some impressions, having seen quite a lot of what most storage users would call 'very private' information. So I end up having an opinion or two, for this. Ok. Three. It's come up in meetings before, but bears repeating: Google released findings saying those common-off-the-shelf IDE drives they'd been running (!droves of drives!) did NOT fail (any differently) when their environs let them run rather hot. So, now, if the much dreaded Heat is not our bugbear, what gives with hard drives dying without our permission? We are not children, here, so let's skip past the usual physical interferences, like shock, vibration, infra-Gaussian warbling, ball-pein hammers and gamma particle storms. I believe the real answer is easily explained. Hard disk drives are marvels of precision machining, spartan firmware, inspiring ASIC chippery and wildly fast signal processing when those bits zing by under the 'flying' heads. These drives are conceived in unusually clean rooms. Some say classy. I say immaculate. And their nascence in mangers of such purity does not prepare them for life on the streets. I choose to believe that most hard disk drives feel a bit excited when they are first written with their very own system image: "Yes. I'll remember that for you. Yes. Yes." .. etc. At this stage, all is as intended. Soon enough, our earnest little friends are further coddled into various systems, for shipment worldwide. Away from their siblings, they are now out on their own, and are still eager to remember & retrieve lots more for us, in mere milliseconds! Then the box opens and it's up & onto the new owner's desktop! Happyhappy! Joyjoy! But alas: As if it's not disappointing enough for them to finally learn which operating system the majority of these drives have to host, add to that, that a certain number of them will soon be asked to store untold horrors; filth and crud which their owners call 'data'. Bad recipes. Panda porn. Political opinions. Twittertwattwaddle. Fwd'd Fwds .. yucky stuff. Blech. Think about it. (or maybe .. don't). Marvel as we may, it is _us_ who kill them: Hard drives die of abject depression, chronic bewilderment, and disgust.

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cloud drives
by Dan Martin 06 Sep '14

06 Sep '14

I first looked at cloud drives as a solution to lack of space on my laptop hard drive. It turns out, however, that most of the major services keep a copy on the local drive. In fact, photos from my phone, downloaded by DropBox, were taking up more room. I thought Google Drive might be a good bet, with lots of free space and the option to block syncing of some data to certain devices. However, it doesn't seem to sync properly. Sometimes it syncs forever, but cannot seem to get the job done. Last time, it said it was completed but when I checked the data (GnuCash accounting files) it was inconsistent. Now, it has been syncing a single item for over an hour. DropBox seems to be working, so I will use it as extra backup and to keep some data synced (Unison has served me well for the sync part). Has anyone else had trouble with Google Drive? I have like everything Google up until now. -- Dan Martin, MD GP Hospital Practitioner Computer Scientist ummar143(a)shaw.ca (204) 831-1746 answering machine always on

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Re: [RndTbl] Roundtable Digest, Vol 117, Issue 2
by Jean Jubinville 05 Sep '14

05 Sep '14

I agree with the cars analogy, in a more specific way... Ok showing my true colours here but really, we're all nerds of one stripe or another aren't we? Disclaimer: I'm not the guy in the video, but am putting together a very similar type of setup on my farm. check out: KenSF3wOtIc If these engines get a good start in life, they can run continuously for 30+years; sometimes oil changes are done by refilling at the same time as draining out the bottom /while the engine is running/. I have also operated and maintained forklifts built in the '60s, operating in scrapyards, abused and overloaded for their entire working lifetime and still in good enough condition to serve the daily needs of the company-50 years running! The Point: In our flaky bits and byte world, I must admit that I am amazed at the durability of some of our last century's 'moving parts' inventions. The longevity of these machines isn't great for economic stimulation, but the lifespan is amazing if pride doesn't factor in, and you have no need to live with the latest. Nowhere in this does a bathtub factor in, but the old iron: there is longevity I can appreciate, feel, and hear. p.s.: mechanic's insider knowledge!: subaru boxer engines WILL give at least 500,000 km of reliable service, with regular oil change(just do the filter every 2-3 oil changes and add sheet metal to rust holes that may pop up in the doors). J.J. On Thu, Sep 4, 2014 at 12:00 PM, <roundtable-request(a)muug.mb.ca> wrote: > Send Roundtable mailing list submissions to > roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > http://www.muug.mb.ca/mailman/listinfo/roundtable > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > roundtable-request(a)muug.mb.ca > > You can reach the person managing the list at > roundtable-owner(a)muug.mb.ca > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of Roundtable digest..." > > Today's Topics: > > 1. hard drive failure curve (Trevor Cordes) > 2. Re: hard drive failure curve (Adam Thompson) > 3. Re: hard drive failure curve (Trevor Cordes) > 4. Re: hard drive failure curve (Adam Thompson) > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: Trevor Cordes <trevor(a)tecnopolis.ca> > To: MUUG RndTbl <roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca> > Cc: > Date: Wed, 3 Sep 2014 14:10:53 -0500 > Subject: [RndTbl] hard drive failure curve > OK, so you know how many (most?) computer components' failure rates > follow the "bathtub curve": > > http://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/des_s99/sw_reliability/Image1.gif > > They either die quickly due to egregious manufacturing faults, or live > a long time (near 0% failure rate), and then all start dying as they get > really old. > > The bathtub curve occurs in tons of places, like with a simple light > bulb. > > As per my experience (probably dealing with over 1000 drives > personally), and google's studies, as well as anecdotal information, > hard drives are different. The failure rate seems to be bathtub-ish. > The initial failure rate is fairly bathtub. But the useful-life period > is at a much higher level and seems to grow slightly, meaning instead > of dropping to near-zero failures during useful life, they drop to > around 15% failure rate each year, mostly independent of age. Then, > in the old-age phase they seem to ramp up much slower towards death. > It's not a hockey-stick right edge, it's more a constant gentle hill > slope. We all have seen many drives that are still running after 8, > 10, 20 years. In fact, it seems more of a survival of the fittest > system (maybe like turtles?), where once they live to a certain age, > many go on to live far beyond the average. > > Anyhow, my question is, what else in the non-computer world has a > failure graph like hard drives? Something easy for a neophyte to grasp. > Normal bathtubs have lightbulbs. What analogy can be used for hard > drives? I haven't been able to think of any! > > Surely there must be one?? > > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: Adam Thompson <athompso(a)athompso.net> > To: Continuation of Round Table discussion <roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca>, Trevor Cordes <trevor(a)tecnopolis.ca> > Cc: > Date: Wed, 03 Sep 2014 14:53:21 -0500 > Subject: Re: [RndTbl] hard drive failure curve > The obvious analogy that for obvious reasons* won't have occurred to you: cars. If you don't get a lemon, it's probably good for a while, but eventually starts to break down. > Also, historically, humans - at least in ages and places where infant mortality is/was a significant drag on population growth. > > -Adam > > *for those of you who don't know Trevor well, his 25(?)-year-old car is lovingly & painstakingly maintained in near-new condition. > > On September 3, 2014 2:10:53 PM CDT, Trevor Cordes <trevor(a)tecnopolis.ca> wrote: >> >> OK, so you know how many (most?) computer components' failure rates >> follow the "bathtub curve": >> >> http://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/des_s99/sw_reliability/Image1.gif >> >> They either die quickly due to egregious manufacturing faults, or live >> a long time (near 0% failure rate), and then all start dying as they get >> really old. >> >> The bathtub curve occurs in tons of places, like with a simple light >> bulb. >> >> As per my experience (probably dealing with over 1000 drives >> personally), and google's studies, as well as anecdotal information, >> hard drives are different. The failure rate seems to be bathtub-ish. >> The initial failure rate is fairly bathtub. But the useful-life period >> is at a much higher level and seems to grow slightly, meaning instead >> of dropping to near-zero failures during useful life, they dr! >> op to >> around 15% failure rate each year, mostly independent of age. Then, >> in the old-age phase they seem to ramp up much slower towards death. >> It's not a hockey-stick right edge, it's more a constant gentle hill >> slope. We all have seen many drives that are still running after 8, >> 10, 20 years. In fact, it seems more of a survival of the fittest >> system (maybe like turtles?), where once they live to a certain age, >> many go on to live far beyond the average. >> >> Anyhow, my question is, what else in the non-computer world has a >> failure graph like hard drives? Something easy for a neophyte to grasp. >> Normal bathtubs have lightbulbs. What analogy can be used for hard >> drives? I haven't been able to think of any! >> >> Surely there must be one?? >> ________________________________ >> >> Roundtable mailing list >> Roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca >> http://www.muug.mb.ca/mailman/listinfo/roundtable > > > -- > Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity. > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: Trevor Cordes <trevor(a)tecnopolis.ca> > To: MUUG RndTbl <roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca> > Cc: > Date: Thu, 4 Sep 2014 02:23:21 -0500 > Subject: Re: [RndTbl] hard drive failure curve > On 2014-09-03 Adam Thompson wrote: >> The obvious analogy that for obvious reasons* won't have occurred to >> you: cars. If you don't get a lemon, it's probably good for a while, >> but eventually starts to break down. Also, historically, humans - at >> least in ages and places where infant mortality is/was a significant >> drag on population growth. > > The Cars example is imperfect, because, as you said "it's good for a > while", but with hard drives I find that the near-zero-failure part of > the bathtub, if it even exists for HDDs, is abominably short, like 6 > months. Most quality cars these days (ones ranked high in Consumer > Reports reliability) should be nearly trouble-free for 5 years. > > Here's my interpretation of the HD curve (monospace required): > > | > | ____________________________ > \ __________/ > \ _________/ > \ / > \__/ > > The main point being that after (maybe) a short reprieve, the failure > probability immediately ramps up to and sits at an unacceptable number > (like 15%) nearly forever, with but a tiny increment after each > additional year. Whether there is a bathtub end after 10-20 years, is > up for debate. (Brad and I have Atari ST drives from 30 years ago that > still operate, for example.) > > Surely if you ASCII'd a modern car graph it wouldn't quite fit? > > Your human being analogy is probably much closer to what I'm looking > for, but that one definitely has an abrupt bathtub hockey-stick at the > right hand side :-) With humans, make it past the first tricky year > and you probably have a small chance that stays relatively static for > dozens of years of contracting a terminal illness or getting hit by a > bus. Not as straight-forward as a "light bulb" example as I was > looking for (as it requires some thought and reflection) but pretty > good. > > Surely, though, in the world of consumer items something else must be > just like hard drives? > > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: Adam Thompson <athompso(a)athompso.net> > To: roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca > Cc: > Date: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 02:41:02 -0500 > Subject: Re: [RndTbl] hard drive failure curve > On 14-09-04 02:23 AM, Trevor Cordes wrote: >> >> The Cars example is imperfect, because, as you said "it's good for a >> while", > > > Yup. Closest mass good I could think of offhand. > >> Surely if you ASCII'd a modern car graph it wouldn't quite fit? > > > The key difference is that you can repair and maintain a car, whereas a HDD (or SSD, for that matter) is either alive and well, alive and dying, or dead - and there's nothing you can do about it. > >> Your human being analogy is probably much closer to what I'm looking >> for, but that one definitely has an abrupt bathtub hockey-stick at the >> right hand side :-) > > > Yessss... although not so abrupt, at various points in history. > >> Surely, though, in the world of consumer items something else must be >> just like hard drives? > > > Not that I can think of. You have to combine a) non-negligible failure rate, with b) extremely tight tolerances, with c) variable quality control on (b), to get a similar result. Outside the computing field, I can't think of anything [other than cars] that has as much complexity, as "finicky" as 10,000rpm spinning platters - AND is common enough that everyone will understand it. > > > -- > -Adam Thompson > athompso(a)athompso.net > > > > _______________________________________________ > Roundtable mailing list > Roundtable(a)muug.mb.ca > http://www.muug.mb.ca/mailman/listinfo/roundtable >

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hard drive failure curve
by Trevor Cordes 04 Sep '14

04 Sep '14

OK, so you know how many (most?) computer components' failure rates follow the "bathtub curve": http://users.ece.cmu.edu/~koopman/des_s99/sw_reliability/Image1.gif They either die quickly due to egregious manufacturing faults, or live a long time (near 0% failure rate), and then all start dying as they get really old. The bathtub curve occurs in tons of places, like with a simple light bulb. As per my experience (probably dealing with over 1000 drives personally), and google's studies, as well as anecdotal information, hard drives are different. The failure rate seems to be bathtub-ish. The initial failure rate is fairly bathtub. But the useful-life period is at a much higher level and seems to grow slightly, meaning instead of dropping to near-zero failures during useful life, they drop to around 15% failure rate each year, mostly independent of age. Then, in the old-age phase they seem to ramp up much slower towards death. It's not a hockey-stick right edge, it's more a constant gentle hill slope. We all have seen many drives that are still running after 8, 10, 20 years. In fact, it seems more of a survival of the fittest system (maybe like turtles?), where once they live to a certain age, many go on to live far beyond the average. Anyhow, my question is, what else in the non-computer world has a failure graph like hard drives? Something easy for a neophyte to grasp. Normal bathtubs have lightbulbs. What analogy can be used for hard drives? I haven't been able to think of any! Surely there must be one??

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[Muug] MUUG Meeting, Sept 9, 7:30pm -- Sage
by Gilbert E. Detillieux 02 Sep '14

02 Sep '14

The Manitoba UNIX User Group (MUUG) will be holding its next monthly meeting on Tuesday, September 9. The meeting topic for this month is as follows: Sage Sage is a free open-source program that allows (in the style of Mathematica or Maple) various types of symbolic manipulation. As described on the web page, Sage is built out of nearly 100 open-source packages and features a unified interface. It can be used to study elementary and advanced, pure and applied mathematics. This includes a huge range of mathematics, including basic algebra, calculus, elementary to very advanced number theory, cryptography, numerical computation, commutative algebra, group theory, combinatorics, graph theory, exact linear algebra and much more. It combines various software packages and seamlessly integrates their functionality into a common experience. It is well-suited for education and research. The user interface is a notebook in a web browser or the command line. Using the notebook, Sage connects either locally to your own Sage installation or to a Sage server on the network. Inside the Sage notebook you can create embedded graphics, beautifully typeset mathematical expressions, add and delete input, and share your work across the network. Michael Doob will be our presenter. Before the break, as this month's RTFM topic, Rob Keizer will talk about the tmux(1) command. The group holds its general meetings at 7:30pm on the second Tuesday of every month from September to June. (There are no meetings in July and August.) Meetings are open to the general public; you don't have to be a MUUG member to attend. ***************************************************************** Please note our *NEW* meeting location for this month: Room 1L08, Lockhart Hall, University of Winnipeg, entrance on Ellice Ave. between Spence St. and Balmoral St. Parking is available on the surrounding streets and in the lots on nearby streets. Look for signage once you're at the building, or ask a security guard. ***************************************************************** For more information about MUUG, and its monthly meetings, check out their Web server: http://www.muug.mb.ca/ Help us promote this month's meeting, by putting this poster up on your workplace bulletin board or other suitable public message board: http://www.muug.mb.ca/meetings/MUUGmeeting.pdf -- Gilbert E. Detillieux E-mail: <gedetil(a)muug.mb.ca> Manitoba UNIX User Group Web: http://www.muug.mb.ca/ PO Box 130 St-Boniface Phone: (204)474-8161 Winnipeg MB CANADA R2H 3B4 Fax: (204)474-7609

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32->64
by Trevor Cordes 27 Aug '14

27 Aug '14

OK, screw 32-bit PAE, I'm going to switch to 64-bit Linux. (For reasons left as a teaser to read the upcoming newsletter...) I'm going to attempt an in-place upgrade F19 to F20, similar to what is outlined here: http://archive09.linux.com/feature/123800 It sounds do-able. I'm more than used to doing wacky pseudo-supported upgrade procedures; I'm running many boxes that have been upgraded from Fedora 3 all the way through to F19 via yum (headless, via network) only; and those boxes have also been hw upgraded a few times each! Try that with Windows (and the end result is clean and trim, not bloated)! I do have a couple of questions I can't seem to find answers to: 1. Will /usr/local/bin stuff I've compiled myself (not too much), which are obviously 32-bit binaries, run on my new 64 system? 2. If #1 requires 32-bit libraries, can Fedora 64-bit have both 32 and 64 libraries installed? 3. Will I lose flash? 4. How many programs am I running that (as per link above) use binary arch-dependent data files? The article mentions db files (I use only MySQL/Maria), but I don't mind doing a full text dump/restore. But what else might use them? I'm a bit scared that systemd's new journal logs might also cause problems. What else? (Good thing UNIX is so text-based.) Why do I not want to do a wipe/reinstall? a) I'm good at getting the wacky option to work, generally. b) I've configured the !*%@@ out of my box and to resetup everything to the way I have it would take way more than the 1 day I am guessing the upgrade method will take. c) #b includes the bazillion daemons I run (and would require reconfig / data file migration) Thanks guys.

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Networking Workshop Questionnaire.
by Sean Cody 25 Aug '14

25 Aug '14

Hey folks, an idea a ways back that it would be neat to put on a workshop on networking design and techniques. In order to gauge interest, and ideas of what content would be the most valuable I've put together a questionnaire. http://bit.ly/networking_questionaire If you are interested in learning more about networking and network design, you are invited to fill in this questionnaire. As well please feel free to send this questionnaire along to any other groups or folks whom may be interested in participating. -- Sean

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Interesting Linux Kernel Developer Panel discussion video
by Bradford C. Vokey 22 Aug '14

22 Aug '14

The latest on the Linux kernel from Linus Torvalds; Andrew Morton (Google); Shuah Khan (Samsung); Andy Lutomirski (AMA Capital Management); and Greg Kroah-Hartman Interesting video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8myENKt8bD0

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CA Domain Registrars
by Dan Keizer 19 Aug '14

19 Aug '14

Hi there -- well, I'm getting frustrated with my current registrar " domainsatcost.ca" ... whom I've used for many years. They recently implemented an automatic renewal for all domains. Meaning, I get an email in my inbox saying I've been billed x$ for my domains that are 45 days from expiring. I understand the reasoning behind it, (ie: DAU's) but I certainly don't agree with being billed without a pre-notice invoice of some type. (They pointed out that I have the option of logging onto the site and looking at my expiry date to find out when I would get billed -- bah -- not the point). Since they have no opt-out option and have no other option to not be renewed automatically, I am looking at other registrars to send my small needs, referrals, to. What do you guys know of for decent registrars for CA domains that you'd recommend? that don't have draconian policies ... Thanks. Dan.

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Control panels - WHM/cPanel, Plesk, Virtualmin
by Hartmut W Sager 14 Aug '14

14 Aug '14

I know that most of you are "raw Linux" geeks, but, as a control panel user on rented Linux servers (usually VPS), I'll ask anyway. This affects a decision about to be made. I have had extensive experience with WHM/cPanel (crappy!) and Plesk (superb!) over the years and right up to the present. But, partly to save money, we are now looking at Virtualmin, which is part of the Virtualmin/Webmin/Cloudmin family. The question is simple: Is this Virtualmin/Webmin/Cloudmin stuff a viable alternative? We don't need a huge array of features, but we need the stuff to work properly, and to be user-friendly enough for us to use. Reseller and/or customer layers for setting up domains/sites would be desirable. We are IT people to quite a degree, but not knowledgeable enough at the Linux prompt nor of all the details of the Linux OS. Also, does anyone here know whether Virtualmin/Webmin/Cloudmin entangle themselves into the OS the way WHM/cPanel and Plesk both do (requiring a disk format and fresh OS install to get rid of them)? And finally, would anyone here be willing to give some paid help if we get stuck or into trouble with Virtualmin/Webmin/Cloudmin? Hartmut W Sager - Tel +1-204-339-8331

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